May 21 2016 Market Update

May 21 2016 Market Update

May 14 - Today we are taking a closer look at the pricing patterns in the Southeast Valley. Comparing price per sq. ft., during the last 3 months (Feb thru Apr) with the same months in 2015, we see the following for single family homes:

  • Homes under $250,000 - average rise of 9.0% in $ per sq. ft.

  • Homes between $250,000 and $500,000 - average rise of 3.1% in $ per sq. ft.

  • Homes over $500,000 - average fall of 3.3% in $ per sq. ft.

Clearly this means we are seeing better pricing in the least expensive areas while prices decline in the more luxurious locations. This is confirmed by the an analysis by the fastest appreciating ZIP codes:

  1. Tempe 85281 +16.3%

  2. Mesa 85204 +15.2%

  3. Chandler 85224 +13.4%

  4. Mesa 85208 + 12.8%

  5. Tempe 85283 +12.1%

  6. Mesa 85201 +11.6%

  7. Mesa 85210 +11.5%

The weakest appreciation is in

  1. Mesa 85207 -2.3%

  2. Phoenix 85045 -1.7%

  3. Chandler 85286 +1.0%

  4. Phoenix 85048 +1.6%

  5. Mesa 85215 +1.6%

May 13 - During the first 4 months of this year we saw 32,177 sales recorded in Maricopa County with an Affidavit of Value. 99.3% of these sales were to people giving a USA address. Only 212 buyers (0.7%) gave a foreign address.

In 2015, the equivalent number was 29,019, so sales are up by almost 11%. However sales to people with foreign addresses are down by 45%. Canadians represent 77% of all foreign buyers in 2016, down from 93% in the first 4 months of 2015. Foreign buyers excluding Canadians have almost doubled from 25 to 48, but this is still a tiny number (0.15%) of the overall market.

Chinese buyers have grown from 6 to 10 units, but these units are very low priced - averaging just $127,260 per home. We can see no sign of the Chinese buyers of luxury properties that have been active in California and other coastal areas. The few Chinese buyers in Phoenix are mostly investing in rental condominiums.

A few foreign buyers have purchased luxury homes. By far the most expensive property going to a foreign-based buyer (a $6 million home in Arcadia) was bought by a company registered in Guadalajara, Mexico.

We also see lone buyers of luxury homes over $1 million from Switzerland and Spain. That is pretty much it. With the Canadians selling more homes than they are buying, our local market is almost completely dominated by domestic buyers.


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Phone: 480-332-6468
Dated: May 21st 2016
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