Market Update December 21

Market Update December 21

December 20 - We are noting a significant drop in the number of new rental listings being added to the ARMLS database. Year to date in 2015 we have counted 38,140 new listings, which is 16% down from the 45,553 we had counted on December 20, 2014. This was already down 15% from the 53,333 on December 2013.

The decline has accelerated. in the last 4 weeks as new listings are down over 29% from the same point in 2014 - only 2,280 versus 3,217. Turning to closed leases, these are down to 2,282 per month from 2,760. That is a 17% decline. The count of active listings is down even more - 33% lower than last year. The average rent for an active listing is $1,842. Last year on December 20 it was $1,640. Average asking price was 84.1 cents per sq ft 12 months ago and it is now 94.7 cents, up almost 12%.

All the above numbers exclude vacation rentals.

We conclude that either the popularity of the MLS for rentals listing is waning fast or the rental market is less actively turning over due to unusually low supply, similar to the low end of the resale market.

It could be both. If it is easier than normal to find tenants then there is less motivation to go to the bother of creating an MLS listing.

December 19 - The listing success rate has improved quite sharply over the last 3 weeks, particularly for the higher price ranges. This is encouraging, but we should not get too excited until we get to the first week of January. We usually see a lot of expiring listings on December 31, so the picture may not look quite so rosy once they are added into the mix.

Despite this, it is a positive signal that the success rate has stopped its declining trend and started to improve again. I think it is fair to say this is another good omen for 2016.

Dave Zajdzinski Headshot
Phone: 480-332-6468
Dated: December 21st 2015
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