Mar 17 2016 Market Update

Mar 17 2016 Market Update

March 16 - The first distinct signs of early trouble are starting to appear in the Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor report for January 2016. For the first time in several years, a couple of states are showing an increase in delinquency rates year over year. It is pretty obvious that this is due to the problems of the oil and gas industry. Ranking the states by the change in the percentage of first loans that are non-current we see:

  1. Wyoming +2.2%

  2. North Dakota +2.1%

  3. West Virginia -0.2%

  4. Oklahoma -0.4%

  5. South Dakota -2.4%

  6. Louisiana -2.8%

  7. Texas -3.0%

  8. Montana -5.1%

  9. Alabama -5.8%

  10. Virginia -5.8%

  11. Delaware -6.4%

  12. New Mexico -6.5%

  13. Kansas -6.7%

  14. Arizona -6.8%

  15. Alaska -7.2%

  16. Mississippi -7.4%

  17. California -7.5%

  18. Georgia -7.7%

  19. Indiana -8.4%

  20. Iowa -8.8%

  21. Kentucky -8.8%

  22. South Carolina -9.0%

  23. North Carolina 9.1%

  24. Montana -9.2%

  25. Utah -9.4%

  26. Pennsylvania -9.5%

  27. Arkansas -9.7%

  28. Tennessee -9.7%

  29. Washington DC -10.1%

  30. Maryland -10.4%

  31. Ohio -10.6%

  32. Nebraska -11.4%

  33. Michigan -11.8%

  34. Minnesota -11.9%

  35. Colorado -12.0%

  36. Wisconsin -12.2%

  37. Maine -12.4%

  38. Idaho -12.6%

  39. Connecticut -13.4%

  40. Vermont -13.7%

  41. Hawaii -14.1%

  42. New York -14.5%

  43. New Jersey -15.0%

  44. Illinois -15.5%

  45. Rhode Island -15.9%

  46. Massachusetts -15.9%

  47. New Hampshire -18.0%

  48. Washington -18.4%

  49. Oregon -18.8%

  50. Nevada -19.1%

  51. Florida -23.4%

The top seven states in this list are all highly dependent on the oil and gas industry. Meanwhile Florida and Nevada, formerly the poster children of the housing crisis, are showing the fastest improvement in delinquency rates.

The picture in Arizona is slightly mixed. While our non-current percentage is down to 4.2% from 4.5% a year ago, this month's reading is higher than all of the readings since last March. We now rank 42rd out of 51 so this is 1 rank worse than last month with Oregon taking our place.

By the time we see the March report, I would expect to see the top 7 states in the table above record higher delinquency rates year over year, along with New Mexico, Alabama and Kansas. California, Arkansas, Arizona, Indiana and Nebraska are also strong possibilities for a year over year increase as March 2015 through September 2015 is going to be a more difficult comparison due to the low delinquency readings we saw last year.


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Phone: 480-332-6468
Dated: March 17th 2016
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