Jan 13 2016 Market Update

Jan 13 2016 Market Update

January 11 - The Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor report is now out for November 2015. The 31,000 first time foreclosure starts in the USA for the month is the lowest in over 10 years, in fact 18% lower than the previous lowest month since the report started monitoring in 2005.

Although every state in the nation is showing lower delinquency rates than in November 2014, the trend since March 2015 has been less positive. Arizona's total non-current loans are up to 4.1% from 3.9% in March. Even so this is a pretty low percentage by historic standards and only 8 states have lower percentages of non-current loans.

Growing the most in non-current loans since March are:

  1. Texas - up by 12% from 6.0% non-current to 6.7%

  2. Oklahoma - up by 11% from from 7.0% to 7.8%

  3. New Mexico - up by 11% from 6.4% to 7.1%

  4. Wyoming - up by 10% from 3.0% to 4.3%

  5. Kansas - up by 9% from 5.6% to 6.1%

These are all states with a heavy exposure to the collapse in commodity pricing. The recent trend is possibly the result of significant redundancies in the support industries to resource exploration and extraction (wells, fracking and mining). Economic hardship usually takes some considerable time to show up in non-current loan numbers. People tend to pay their mortgage if they can. I therefore find the last 6 months figures a little worrying for the mid western states and Texas. The annual changes won't look bad until we get to the report that covers March (released in May) and there is usually a seasonal improvement between December and March. We will have to wait and see if that seasonal trend still holds sway in 2016.

Louisiana is also not looking great and has overtaken New Jersey as the second worst state for loan delinquency after long-term delinquency leader Mississippi.

Alaska, Oregon, Florida, New Jersey and Nevada continue to improve the most quickly.


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Dated: January 13th 2016
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