Feb 5 2016 Market Update

Feb 5 2016 Market Update

The Cromford® Market Index is still in positive territory but it has been trending lower since January 17 when it peaked at 136.5. It has eased to 132.8, mainly because the supply index has risen from 72.9 to 74.5 but partly because the demand index has weakened a little from 99.5 to 99.0. The trend in favor of buyers is not at all dramatic but it is fairly broad based and is affecting most cities. Here is how the single family markets in the top 17 cities have fared over the last month:

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We now have more cities deteriorating for sellers than improving (9 to 8). This picture is also painting a much more positive picture than a comparison which uses only the last 2 weeks:

Here only 2 cities improved for sellers over the last two weeks - Paradise Valley and Tempe - and Tempe started to deteriorate over the last 7 days while Paradise Valley continued to improve though only slightly.

The West Valley has lost some of the steam it had last year, Avondale, Peoria & Buckeye in particular. The Southeast Valley and Phoenix are still doing fairly well but the former improving trend has faltered. There was little change over the last two weeks in Phoenix, Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Tempe or Queen Creek. but when we examine the daily numbers all these cities have indexes that are now declining.

Among the 39 major and secondary cities, only the following 6 saw improvement in the last 7 days - Arizona City, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, Litchfield Park, Paradise Valley and Tolleson. Declines in the CMI were particularly severe in Sun City West and Sun City.

It is still early days but based on these signals I am adjusting down a notch my optimism for a strong spring selling season. To rekindle my optimism I would need to see in the next 2 weeks a lower rate of rise in the number of active listings and an increase in the number of listings going under contract.

Dave Zajdzinski Headshot
Phone: 480-332-6468
Dated: February 5th 2016
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